At the crossroads again

Pakistan has always had the potential to be a regional power. However, Years and years of economic and governance decadence and the lack of an independent foreign policy has brought us to a situation whereby Pakistan is completely isolated in terms of International relations and our reputation is seriously tainted as a sponsor of state terrorism.

As the world is going through an oil shock, the financial muscle of Saudi Arabia has severely deflated and our great benefactor cannot help us too much anymore. On the other hand, Iran has stabbed us in the back, and is actually colluding with India to weaken Pakistan, as was evidenced by the capture of the Indian spy in balochistan who'se base was in Iran. Afghanistan has been hostile since independence and its alliance with India has been becoming stronger.

In this context, the final nail in the coffin has been the joint statement in US post Modis visit that indirectly blames Pkistan for supporting terrorism and lays the foundation of joint action on Pakistan soil in pursuit of terrorists which effectively allows even India to start disregarding Pakistan's sovereignty.

As we stand at the cross roads again, it is imperative that we learn from our past mistakes in terms of managing big powers, which in today's world that's becoming increasingly bipolar, and this calls for us to have a well thought through US and China policy.

Fortunately, the one direction things have been moving correctly Is Pakistanis relations with China. In all honesty the foundation of these relations is actually the the common enemy: India. Nonetheless, CPEC like projects were always a discussion point in terms of giving China access to the Indian Ocean which is not India centric. Pakistan must ensure that from a security perspective it is safe for the Chinese to be working in the project. There will be elements from neighbouring hostile countries that will try to disrupt the project as it will make both China and Pakistan stronger in the region.  The army chief has already guaranteed the Chinese that a special force will be deputed to protect Chinese citizens. Secondly it has to be ensured that the planning of the project is meticulously done. Army chief rightly suggested the establishment of a CPEC authority which would have both military and civilian representation. While that has not been accepted as a proposal by the government, there have been smaller cells established. In short the project should not get hindered by quintessential government inefficiencies. If this project materliases not only will it create jobs in our two disadvantaged provinces, it will link us inextricably to China.

But, we should be cognisant of our past mistake of a one power dependent foreign policy. What we must realise is that the US as a superpower is there to stay. It is still a unipolar world at present and while Obama administration may have had a more realist foreign policy, it is only so in order to make itself internally stronger after the Iraq debacle and the 2007 financial crisis. As far as economic or military might or influence over global institutions is concerned, the US is still the undisputed leader and therefore Pakistan must rebuild relations with US.

What Pakistan needs here is getting the basics of diplomacy right. United States as a system is impressionable enough to be influenced by lobbying and it is criminal neglect on our part to have not been working more on this front. Pakistan's image has been badly tarnished during the war on terror but despite operation Zarb e Azab, the image has changed very less. One reason has been the failure to showcase what we have achieved as part of this operation to the international audience. This is pretty much the only "doing more" required on our part in the war against terror. What makes this even more important is that we must be keeping the Haqqani network intact. That's our force of guerrilla fighters and Unconventional warfare ability needs to be a key pillar of defence in case a foreign power thinks of putting feet on our soil. Creating awareness of our actions against other militants group will go  a long way in clarifying to the world that Pakistan is against terrorism of all sorts.

One reason why our relations with US have suffered is that we are now deemed as largely irrelevant. To regain some relevance we need to move closer to US's friends as well as foes. No other country has been able to exploit the US system more effectively than Israel. Through bodies such as AIPAC and AJC, Israel has literally controlled the US foreign Policy which has been detailed very well in the book "Israel lobby and the US foreign policy". It is very important that we open up our back doors to Israel. What are we achieving by treating Israel as an enemy? Are we any more likely to resolving the Palestine issue by keeping Israel at a distance? While there will always be challenges in having a public detente, we must have stronger back channel relations only so that the same is in the knowledge of US. Moreover, we need to make alliances with countries in Latin America. Simple small level trade agreements  could open the way for dialogue and strategic partnerships in future and will, again, increase Pakistans relevance in US's eyes. Importantly, while we do this, we must maintain a very positive public position on relations with the United States. 

In summary, the foreign policy disasters that have happened in the past need to be put behind us and we need to continue on the path we are on vis a vis China but set about rebuilding ties with US.